World energy consumption to grow 49 by 2035 – International Energy Outlook

first_imgWorld marketed energy consumption is set to grow 49% between 2007 and 2035, driven by economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the Reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2010 (IEO2010), released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). “Renewables are the fastest-growing source of world energy supply, but fossil fuels are still set to meet more than three-fourths of total energy needs in 2035 assuming current policies are unchanged,” said EIA Administrator Richard Newell.The global economic recession that began in 2007 and continued into 2009 has had a profound impact on near-term prospects for world energy demand. Total marketed energy consumption contracted by 1.2% in 2008 and by an estimated 2.2% in 2009, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services declined. In the Reference case, as the economic situation improves, most nations are expected to return to the economic growth rates that were projected prior to the downturn. Total world energy use in the Reference case rises 49%, from 495 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2007 to 739 quadrillion Btu in 2035.The report says that China and India are among the nations least impacted by the global recession, and they will continue to lead the world’s economic and energy demand growth into the future. In 2007, China and India together accounted for about 20% of total world energy consumption. With strong economic growth in both countries over the projection period, their combined energy use more than doubles by 2035, when they account for 30% of world energy use in the IEO2010 Reference case. In contrast, the projected US share of world energy consumption falls from 21% in 2007 to about 16% in 2035.Other report highlights include:• From 2007 to 2035, total world energy consumption rises by an average annual 1.4% in the IEO2010 Reference case. Strong economic growth among the non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) nations drives the increase. Non-OECD energy use increases by 2.2%/y; in the OECD countries energy use grows by only 0.5%/y• Petroleum and other liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, though projected higher oil prices erode their share of total energy use from 35% in 2007 to 30% in 2035• In the absence of additional national policies and/or binding international agreements that would limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption is projected to increase from 132 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 206 quadrillion Btu in 2035, at an average annual rate of 1.6%. China alone accounts for 78% of the total net increase in world coal use from 2007 to 2035• World net electricity generation increases by 87%, from 18.8 trillion kWh in 2007 to 35.2 trillion kWh in 2035. Renewables are the fastest growing source of new electricity generation, increasing by 3.0%/y in the Reference case; followed by coal-fired generation, which increases by 2.3%/y• In the IEO2010 Reference case, world industrial energy consumption grows 66%, from 184 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 262 quadrillion Btu in 2035. The non-OECD economies account for about 95% of the world increase in industrial sector energy consumption in the Reference case• In the IEO2010 Reference case, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from 29,700 Mt in 2007 to 42,400 Mt in 2035 – an increase of 43%. Much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia.The IEO2010 highlights can be found on EIA’s web site at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.htmllast_img

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